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Forgotten will be Russian hackers, ‘bots, and Facebook ads. China will determine the outcome of the 2020 election unlike any foreign actor real or imagined ever has. However, it will not be in the way that Xi Jinping or the Chinese Communist Party would like. 2020 will be an important milestone in a slow rolling disaster for the Chinese regime that has been years in the making. Even before the coronavirus that rarest of political creatures, A National Consensus was beginning to emerge. This growing consensus will dominate the election and push other issues to the margins; even if cable news and the twitterati don’t understand this yet.
In a delicious irony, (if you are a Trump supporter) it is Organized Labor that has made possible the coming sea change in the politics of 2020. Confused? Let Chuck Schumer explain. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/06/schumer-urges-trump-to-hang-tough-after-china-trade-tariff-threat.html Objection to unfair trade practices in general and China’s trade practices in particular have their genesis in Organized Labor and the Democratic party. A tough-on-China approach now enjoys broad support across party lines, as it is now the dominant campaign theme of a Republican President. https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/08/13/u-s-views-of-china-turn-sharply-negative-amid-trade-tensions/ And these surveys were taken before the Coronavirus! It is as sure as anything can be that as millions of Americans are sickened and unemployed these numbers will only grow and harden. Politicians that espouse views to the contrary will do so at their electoral peril. So toxic is the Communist Chinese brand becoming.
Future attractions include a parade of horribles; including discussion of Beijing’s penetration and corruption of organizations from the World Health Organization, Hollywood and the NBA. Yes, even the NBA. https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2019-10-07/hiltzik-nba-china Even the National Public Radio has gotten in on the action; raising the alarm about Chinese espionage activities in the US that make the Russians look like Boris and Natasha of Bullwinkle fame. https://www.npr.org/2019/09/18/761831560/china-is-the-u-s-s-top-intelligence-threat-american-officials-say Coming soon are widespread and gory discussions of ‘Wet Markets’, and disgust with phony Chinese government coronavirus numbers. By summer, we will be seeing more video footage of Hong Kongers waving American flags fighting for freedom – and being hosed, tear gassed and beaten for it. Toss in Communist oppression of racial minorities in western China and you have what will be a largely one issue election.
So rapidly is this election becoming about China even liberal firebrands aren’t getting traction with their usual material. Have you seen anyone defend the Chinese government? I haven’t either, other than a short lived and intellectually flexible attempt to equate holding Beijing accountable for the pandemic with…. you know, racism.
This is going to be a very challenging environment for former Vice President Biden who threw in with the globalist wing of his party long ago. Joe Biden explains: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dew9qqoAM9A&feature=youtu.be. Those who live in Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin will be seeing that clip plenty. And then there was that business with his son flying into China on Air Force Two and flying out with a lucrative business deal funded by the Chinese government.
The election aside, this emerging consensus on China will have catastrophic consequences for the designs of Xi Jinping and the Chinese communist party. American consumers will become sensitive to products’ origins and averse to purchasing products made in China. Companies will feel that pressure and begin the slow movement of manufacturing to countries with lower labor costs and without the stigma or political and economic risks of Communist China. Additionally, there will be no political incentive for American policy makers – of either party to be accommodating to China. To add insult to injury for Beijing, Taiwan’s standing in the world and argument for recognition in international bodies will grow.
It promises to be the election season no one saw coming. For the US AND China
THIS WILL HAPPEN!